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#1 2020-08-16 11:17:21

Mr.I
路人丙
所在地: Kerbal
注册时间: 2015-08-29
帖子: 244

About the future

First of all, this post is posted in English to avoid hurting some people who probably can't take the grimness of this discussion.

This post is talking about an imagination of the dark future, nothing is real.

If moderators think this topic is bad or problematic, please close or delete it.

Here starts the topic.

A few days ago, a rumor of Microsoft will stop offering Windows services in China was distributed, and soon, Microsoft responds and confirms that this is a false rumor.

Even though this rumor has been proved as a false rumor, it still makes me worried a lot, what if it becomes a truth.

In the foreseeable future, the blockade and censorship will become more and more grim to people who live inside the great wall of information. There could be a chance of what the rumor said becomes a truth. The main concern is, if the day comes, the Chinese government will certainly pay more attention on their so called "Independently Developed Operating System". With the leaving of Microsoft Windows, those "Independently Developed" GNU/Linux systems will be distributed in China, by the government of course.

Thus, the nightmare comes, with the popularization of desktop GNU/Linux systems, the software ecosystem of desktop GNU/Linux in China will become something similar with the Windows in China today (a mess). And the paw of the censorship will finally reach repository mirrors in China, all mirrors will be corrupted by the government just like what happened to DNS servers today, for they must stop the distribution of all these wall-bypassing softwares and any thing that refuses to obey them. Once that day comes, the software ecosystem of GNU/Linux in China will become an isolated island, it will become very hard for most of users to catch up the evolution of desktop GNU/Linux which is now happening.

A few years ago, with the release of SteamOS and Proton from Valve Software, desktop GNU/Linux enters a new era, with the gorgeous evolution, newest system environment is almost always required for end users. But the benefit of the new era could be ended soon for us who living in China.

With the exacerbation of international relationship with USA, all these modern technology vendors could leave China and our only choice will be using a whole obsolete "Independently Developed" system, and none of its hardware and software will be supported by the international software ecosystem.

The leaving of American technology vendors means the isolation of software ecology, an isolated software ecology with censorship brings a certain dark future.
If it becomes true, how do we survive the impact, and how do we survive the inevitable censorship.

最近编辑记录 Mr.I (2020-08-16 11:52:33)

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#2 2020-08-16 11:34:00

yw662
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所在地: localhost
注册时间: 2018-10-10
帖子: 388

Re: About the future

The free software movement and free softwares are of and for everyone. They are not and will never be under the regulation of any countries and governments, no matter it is the US or the PRC.

最近编辑记录 yw662 (2020-08-16 11:34:28)


ecmascript是世界上最好的语言

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#3 2020-08-16 11:42:42

Mr.I
路人丙
所在地: Kerbal
注册时间: 2015-08-29
帖子: 244

Re: About the future

yw662 说:

The free software movement and free softwares are of and for everyone. They are not and will never be under the regulation of any countries and governments, no matter it is the US or the PRC.

Wrong, I'm not talking about free softwares.

I started this topic from software and led it into a more grim thing: the hardware.
And it's mostly about hardware and commercial software. Once the market is closed, there will be no reason left for companies to continue their work for a specific market.

最近编辑记录 Mr.I (2020-08-16 11:52:07)

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#4 2020-08-16 11:42:54

yw662
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注册时间: 2018-10-10
帖子: 388

Re: About the future

In the US, free distribution of softwares, at least in the form of source code, is protected by the First Amendment. There is no way that the federal government can prevent any bit of it.

And actually, the copyright of linux, the kernel, does not completely belong to US citizens. The federal government has no legal control of it at all.


ecmascript是世界上最好的语言

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#5 2020-08-16 11:47:39

Mr.I
路人丙
所在地: Kerbal
注册时间: 2015-08-29
帖子: 244

Re: About the future

yw662 说:

In the US, free distribution of softwares, at least in the form of source code, is protected by the First Amendment. There is no way that the federal government can prevent any bit of it.

And actually, the copyright of linux, the kernel, does not completely belong to US citizens. The federal government has no legal control of it at all.

It's not about the US government, it's about Chinese government.

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#6 2020-08-16 12:07:18

Mr.I
路人丙
所在地: Kerbal
注册时间: 2015-08-29
帖子: 244

Re: About the future

yw662 说:

In the US, free distribution of softwares, at least in the form of source code, is protected by the First Amendment. There is no way that the federal government can prevent any bit of it.

And actually, the copyright of linux, the kernel, does not completely belong to US citizens. The federal government has no legal control of it at all.

Free software is the biggest part of the GNU/Linux software ecosystem, that's true. But, you can't forget that it's based on modern hardwares.

Maybe some major projects like Linux Kernel will support some "Independently Developed" hardwares and it will make the indirectly support for many other free softwares, but how about commercial softwares. Even though most of softwares run on Linux are free softwares, but commercial softwares are very important for desktop GNU/Linux ecosystem, without them, it will no longer be acceptable for most of normal users.

最近编辑记录 Mr.I (2020-08-17 11:59:02)

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#7 2020-08-16 15:06:02

驿窗
驿窗
注册时间: 2016-06-03
帖子: 877

Re: About the future

这事有点远,感觉暂时应该不需要考虑;主要是,考虑了一下好像也没什么办法~

技术在不断发展进化,其它东西也会发展进化,我们不太好能确定明天的世界是什么样子的;既然Linux是必然,那么不妨先看看怎么把Linux发展到极致;

按现在的国际紧张趋势状态继续发展,以后的大互联网有可能演变成为一个个孤岛,这是更最麻烦的事,远比Linux发行版麻烦~

Linux的生产力还有很多没有释放出来,潜力可期;但作为PlanB,更需要努力和投入~

Unlimited是一种理想状态,而社会形态的组织结构,注定要为所有事务都添加行为准则框架;我们一方面在框架内进行社会活动,另一方面,社会形态的微观会因为活动的进行而不断演变~

未来的状态,有一部分是基于当前的现状,还有一部分是基于后续的发展进化,所以,我们除了根据现状来推断未来,还可以用发展的眼光来畅想未来~

最近编辑记录 驿窗 (2020-08-16 15:21:11)


-----------------------------------
开源/Linux大众化,从驿窗开始~

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#8 2020-08-16 17:32:13

blackteahamburger
Wiki Maintainer
注册时间: 2020-02-07
帖子: 194

Re: About the future

Hope this will happen later...I am speechless about the Chinese government's review.

That is a dark future, and I hope that the Chinese government will not reach out to free software.

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#9 2020-08-16 17:58:10

驿窗
驿窗
注册时间: 2016-06-03
帖子: 877

Re: About the future

现在的我们可以尝试推动改变未来的某个局部~

最近编辑记录 驿窗 (2020-08-16 17:59:03)


-----------------------------------
开源/Linux大众化,从驿窗开始~

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#10 2020-08-17 11:58:04

Mr.I
路人丙
所在地: Kerbal
注册时间: 2015-08-29
帖子: 244

Re: About the future

blackteahamburger 说:

I hope that the Chinese government will not reach out to free software.

I believe that they can't, at least they can't do that directly.
And I also believe that once they decide to do this, the way it goes on would be very similar as what they did: self-isolation.

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#11 2020-08-17 12:04:24

Mr.I
路人丙
所在地: Kerbal
注册时间: 2015-08-29
帖子: 244

Re: About the future

驿窗 说:

这事有点远,感觉暂时应该不需要考虑;主要是,考虑了一下好像也没什么办法~

技术在不断发展进化,其它东西也会发展进化,我们不太好能确定明天的世界是什么样子的;既然Linux是必然,那么不妨先看看怎么把Linux发展到极致;

按现在的国际紧张趋势状态继续发展,以后的大互联网有可能演变成为一个个孤岛,这是更最麻烦的事,远比Linux发行版麻烦~

Linux的生产力还有很多没有释放出来,潜力可期;但作为PlanB,更需要努力和投入~

Unlimited是一种理想状态,而社会形态的组织结构,注定要为所有事务都添加行为准则框架;我们一方面在框架内进行社会活动,另一方面,社会形态的微观会因为活动的进行而不断演变~

未来的状态,有一部分是基于当前的现状,还有一部分是基于后续的发展进化,所以,我们除了根据现状来推断未来,还可以用发展的眼光来畅想未来~


I can feel the huge difference between us, and I respect you and your hopefulness.

Have a nice day, my friend.

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#12 2020-08-17 14:25:08

Shion
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所在地: 布满陷阱和麻烦的地方
注册时间: 2017-10-14
帖子: 59
个人网站

Re: About the future

GPL agreement will not produce this situation


无名之辈

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#13 2020-08-18 00:17:52

blackteahamburger
Wiki Maintainer
注册时间: 2020-02-07
帖子: 194

Re: About the future

Shion 说:

GPL agreement will not produce this situation

It's different in China...

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